I listened to the IT Conversations podcast from PopTech 2005 by Nassim Taleb on the Scandal of Prediction. His idea is that most people have a much too optimistic belief in what they think is going to happen in the future. Taleb compared published predicitions make by people in various professions against the actual outcome to determine the forecasting abilities of these professionals. Security analysts came out pretty bad. He has two Australian references. I didn't know black swans only occur in Australia but probably knew that building the Sydney Opera House was originally budgeted at costing $7M and ended up costing $117M and was ten years late.
"that the American undirected free-enterprise works because it aggressively allows to capture the randomness of the environment" from The Birth of Stochastic Science. I think I agree that any attempt to organise the future based on past behaviour will fail because of an unpredictable major disjoint event so stop worrying.
2007-03-30
2007-03-02
I've finished my presentation on RAT and now a few people are interested. I've also started looking further and started reading The Attention Economy. I've also found Karen Stephenson's talk where she mentions her site with lots of material. I'm also listening to Susan Blackmore talking about memes. This is her site.
I've been looking for social networking tools and one of those is Many Eyes which has some interesting visualisations of WoW.
I've been looking for social networking tools and one of those is Many Eyes which has some interesting visualisations of WoW.
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